[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 20 09:44:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased from 350 to 500 km/s at approximately
1300UT/19 due to recurrent coronal hole. Expect the solar wind
speed to remain around 500 km/s today, 20 May, and and gradually
return to pre-coronal hole levels on 21 May. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-10 nT,
however was mostly positive. Noted a coronal mass ejection on
the northwest quadrant of the solar disc, first appearing on
SOHO C3 imagery at 1218UT/19. It is not expected to be geo-effective.
Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 7 12223222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 7 21223221
Canberra 2 01112200
Hobart 5 11112311
Casey(Ant) 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 12 Unsettled
21 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 18 May and is
current for interval 19-21 May. Geomagnetic field went from Quiet
to Unsettled conditions due to an increase in the solar wind
speed. Expect Unsettled conditions to prevail over the UT day,
20 May and gradually return to Quiet levels on 21 May. Isolated
cases of Active levels possible while solar wind is elevated,
particularly if the Bz component of the IMF has a prolong negative
direction.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 May 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting
from the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect this
trend to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted levels.
The Unsettled Geomagnetic activity over the next two days is
not expected to have a significant effect on the HF conditions
in the Australian Region. Note, sunspot region 1069 is due to
rotate onto the visible solar disc on 22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 49400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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