[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 11 09:51:34 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day. One
B-class flare was observed. Solar wind speed varied between
320 and 370 km/s for most parts of the UT day today. The
interplanetary magnetic field Bz component stayed close to
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream
may remain strengthened for the next three days due to the
presence of small sized coronal holes in geoeffective positions.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 3 1211110-
Darwin 3 1211110-
Townsville 12 -332----
Learmonth 4 121-----
Canberra 0 000010--
Hobart 1 1100----
Casey(Ant) 4 1220----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
12 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
13 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with some
possibility of isolated active periods may be expected for
the next three days due to the presence of small coronal
holes in geoeffective positions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Due to the
unavailability of some data due to a power failure, the whole
day could not be analysed. Mostly normal conditions on low
and mid latitudes are expected for the next three days and
some MUF depressions and degradations in conditions may be
possible on high latitude circuits due to a possible enhancement
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 22 near predicted monthly values
12 May 22 near predicted monthly values
13 May 22 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions today. Due to the unavailability of some data due to
a power failure, the whole day could not be analysed. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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