[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 10 09:50:20 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day. AR1069 produced 
two small B-class x-ray flares and has rotated off the disc. 
The only region remaining is AR1071. Solar wind speed declined 
from 500 km/s to 350 km/s during the last 24 hours as the trailing 
effects of the coronal hole wane. A co-rotating interaction region 
associated with a coronal hole high speed wind stream may become 
geoeffective 11-12th May. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz 
component was mildly southward (up to -5nT). 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           5   221112--
      Learmonth            2   11001021
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   10001010
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2221 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May     6    Quiet 
11 May     6    Quiet 
12 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours 
with isolated Active levels noted at higher latitudes. Over the 
next one to two days expect mostly Quiet conditions with possible 
Unsettled to Active periods on 11-12th May due to a co-rotating 
interaction region associated with a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May    24    Near predicted monthly values 
11 May    24    Near predicted monthly values 
12 May    26    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Frequencies at most Australian latitudes were near monthly 
medians with depressions noted at local night time hours in the 
northern near-equatorial stations. Equatorial ionosphere was 
depressed. Expect near predicted monthly MUF values for the next 
3 days with perhals an increase on 11th or 12th due to increased 
geomagnetic activity 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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