[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 7 09:47:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 76/14 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was unexpectedly Very Low over the last
24 hours as AR1069 became considerably less active than yesterday
with only a single B flare as it shrank but retained magnetic
complexity. 1069 retains the potential to produce M flares but
will rotate off the disc in the next two days. None of the other
numbered regions appear to have the potential for significant
flares. A significant CME on the SW limb was observed by the
SOHO spacecraft early in the UT day but it does not appear to
be Earth directed, supported by cosmic ray data not showing a
Forbush decrease which occurs if the CME is on the Sun-Earth
line. Solar wind speed has returned to quiescent levels and oscillated
between 500 and 560km/s as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position. IMF Bz oscillated north-south between +/-5nT and no
significant southward periods. Solar activity is expected to
be Low over the next 2 days with more B and C-class flares and
the low possibility of M flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 7 12232221
Darwin 7 12232221
Townsville 7 12232222
Learmonth 11 12243322
Canberra 4 01232110
Hobart 7 02332221
Casey(Ant) 11 2-333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3221 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled/Active observed over the last 24
hours at mid-latitudes as solar wind speed declined to normal
levels. The disturbed periods are probably due to oscillations
in the solar wind speed and IMF Bz rather than higher speed or
sustained Bz south. The STEREO-B spacecraft detected a corotating
structure in the solar wind on 5th May, possibly reaching Earth
10-11th May and probably coincident with a large coronal hole
about to rotate onto the disc. A CME observed early 6th May is
not expected to be geoeffective. Conditions should be Quiet with
occasional Unsettled for the next 2-3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 24 near predicted monthly values
08 May 24 near predicted monthly values
09 May 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies at most Australian latitudes near monthly
medians but equatorial regions depressed at night, probably due
to remnant geomagnetic activity from earlier in the week. Expecting
to continue near median conditions for the next 3 days. Small
possibility of an SWF from AR1069 which has already produced
an M1 flare and has potential for more. A solar CME early on
6th May does not appear to be Earth directed but a coronal hole
and, probably associated corotating IMF disturbance, may cause
geomagnetic activity 10-11th May, possibly depressing HF frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list