[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 31 09:59:19 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region
1057 (N17W19) remains a magnetic beta-class spot group, and Region
1059 (S24E38) a stable Alpha. A partial halo CME observed in
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery from 0300UT is likely to have been a backsided
event and is not likely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is
expected to be very low over the next three days. The solar wind
speed ranged between 350-420km/s over the period and is expected
to remain low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Darwin 4 12111122
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 5 22111122
Canberra 2 12001011
Hobart 5 22111122
Casey(Ant) 12 34311133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2011 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 3 Quiet
01 Apr 3 Quiet
02 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day with
some isolated Active periods at high latitudes related to substorm
activity on the nightside. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 27 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
01 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
02 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, particularly during the local
day at N.Aus/equatorial latitudes and overnight at mid- and S.Aus
latitudes. Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 52200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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