[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 30 10:07:58 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region 
1057 (N15W08) remains a magnetic beta-class spot group, and Region 
1059 (S23E50) a stable Alpha. Solar activity is expected to be 
low over the next three days, with a slight chance for an M-class 
flare, particularly if region 1057 develops further in complexity. 
Solar wind speed declined over the period and is expected to 
remain low for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               3   11101211
      Townsville           3   11111220
      Learmonth            4   21112211
      Canberra             1   00001200
      Hobart               5   11112311
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   0322 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     5    Quiet 
31 Mar     5    Quiet 
01 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Isolated active periods 
possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
31 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
01 Apr    28    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the 
region over the past 24 hours, particularly overnight at mid- 
and S.Aus latitudes. Expect generally enhanced conditions next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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