[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 27 10:50:00 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Region 1057 (N15E30) has increased in size. A CME was
observed from the LASCO and STEREO images ejecting around 0705
UT and appears to be Earth-directed. Solar wind speed ranged
between about 360 and 480 km/s while the IMF Bz component ranged
between about +/- 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
remain disturbed over the next three days due to coronal hole
and CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet with unsettled
to active periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11112002
Darwin 2 11111002
Townsville 5 12212112
Learmonth 3 21112002
Canberra 0 00001001
Hobart 5 12122112
Casey(Ant) 7 34322002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1101 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 7 Quiet to unsettled
28 Mar 7 Quiet to unsettled
29 Mar 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods likely at high latitudes over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
28 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
29 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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