[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 22 10:19:35 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: No significant solar activity observed today. Solar 
wind parameters have declined to nominal levels. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111101
      Darwin               2   12111001
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            2   22011000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               3   11111111
      Casey(Ant)           5   23-20101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1331 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     4    Quiet 
23 Mar     6    Quiet 
24 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated Unsettled 
periods during the first half of the UT day at high latitudes 
only. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Chance 
of brief Unsettled periods day two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
23 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
24 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the 
region over the past 24 hours, especially Equatorial/N Aus around 
local mid-day. Expect generally enhanced conditions next three 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    74700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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