[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 21 10:26:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: A fast, West-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery
after 0418UT. Culgoora H-Alpha imagery indicated an ejection
from AR1054 near the West limb. Position and speed suggest a
potential minor geoeffective event. Solar wind speed remained
steady at around 400 km/s and the Bz component of the IMF showed
moderate (+-5nT) fluctuations about neutral.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12222221
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 6 12222221
Learmonth 6 22213220
Canberra 3 02212110
Hobart 9 22323321
Casey(Ant) 10 -4322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0011 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 4 Quiet
22 Mar 4 Quiet
23 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditons were Quiet at low to mid latitudes
and Quiet to Unsettled at high latitudes. A number of mid-latitude
stations reported a brief Unsettled interval around 07-08UT.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Chance of brief
Unsettled periods day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
22 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
23 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours. Expect generally enhanced conditions
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 68100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list