[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 19 10:18:15 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Only minor B-class flares were observed over the past 
24 hours. Solar wind speed declined steadily from 460 to 380 
km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained 
mildly Northwards. There was no obvious solar wind evidence of 
the CME observed on Mar 14. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111121
      Darwin               3   21101111
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            4   22011121
      Canberra             1   11000001
      Hobart               4   22111121
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1421 0013     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar     6    Quiet 
20 Mar     4    Quiet 
21 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid latitudes 
with isolated periods of Unsettled conditions observed at high 
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. There 
is a chance of isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes day 
one 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
20 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
21 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the 
region over the past 24 hours, particularly local night. Expect 
generally enhanced conditions next three days with the possibility 
of brief disturbances Antarctic region day one. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.69E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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