[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 17 10:21:46 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: NOAA active region 1054 declined in spot number and
magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. Expect no more than
B-class flares from this region for the next three days. Solar
wind speed increased from 320 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hrs.
Expect to observe evidence of the passage of the Earth bound
CME, first observed early in the UT day 14 March, most likely
during the second half of the UT day 17 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12311112
Darwin 5 12311012
Townsville 6 12312112
Learmonth 6 12311122
Hobart 4 12202112
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled. Expect
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions today and tomorrow, 17-18
March with the chance of isolated Active to Minor storm intervals
possible at high to mid latitudes due to passage of CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
18 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
19 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
Noted ocassional sporadic E at Darwin.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 58600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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