[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 15 10:56:10 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 89/33 90/34 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the the last 24 hours with
several B-class x-ray flares and two C-class flares from NOAA
active region (AR) 11054. The C1.5-class flare occurred at 13/2349UT
and was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, a H-alpha subflare,
and a partial halo CME viewed in SOHO C2 imagery at 14/0131UT.
The CME effects are expected to arrive at Earth around 17 March.
The solar wind speed was ranged between 485 and 375 km/s and
is presently 375 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly southward, however remained less then
-4nT. At approximately 14/2145UT there was a solar sector boundry
crossing. Based on recurrence trends and STEREO IMPACT data there
may be a prolonged southward Bz during the UT day 15 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21113212
Darwin 5 11113112
Townsville 5 11113112
Learmonth 6 21113212
Canberra - --------
Hobart 6 21113212
Casey(Ant) 11 3-233213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1000 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 5 Quiet
16 Mar 6 Quiet
17 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
16 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
17 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
Noted spread F over Hobart during the local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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