[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 10

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 15 10:55:35 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    89/33              90/34              91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the the last 24 hours with 
several B-class x-ray flares and two C-class flares from NOAA 
active region (AR) 11054. The C1.5-class flare occurred at 13/2349UT 
and was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, a H-alpha subflare, 
and a partial halo CME viewed in SOHO C2 imagery at 14/0131UT. 
The CME effects are expected to arrive at Earth around 17 March. 
The solar wind speed was ranged between 485 and 375 km/s and 
is presently 375 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mostly southward, however remained less then 
-4nT. At approximately 14/2145UT there was a solar sector boundry 
crossing. Based on recurrence trends and STEREO IMPACT data there 
may be a prolonged southward Bz during the UT day 15 March. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21113212
      Darwin               5   11113112
      Townsville           5   11113112
      Learmonth            6   21113212
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               6   21113212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-233213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 0221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     5    Quiet 
16 Mar     6    Quiet 
17 Mar     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Niue Island Region:
     Enhanced by 55% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    58200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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