[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 5 09:31:23 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from around 520 to 600 km/s 
and is currently about 525 km/s. The north-south component of 
the IMF varied between about +6 and -7 nT. STEREO A and B imagery 
show CME events at around 0239 and 1209 UT on 4 June; neither 
appear to be Earth directed. Solar wind parameters should return 
to normal over the next two days before becoming disturbed on 
day three due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels. 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33332111
      Darwin               9   33232112
      Townsville          12   34332222
      Learmonth           11   43332112
      Canberra             5   23231000
      Hobart               8   33242000
      Casey(Ant)          11   33333212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   1224 3133     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     6    Quiet 
06 Jun     5    Quiet 
07 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels on day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jun     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      02-03 and 15-17 UT. Spread F observed 12-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      01-07 and 14-17 UT. Spread F observed at Townsville
      12-19 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      mostly during daytime. Spread F observed during night
      hours. No data for Christchurch.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 15-40%.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
06 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
07 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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