[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 4 09:33:33 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased from 450 km/s to 560 km/s
and ended the period around 540 km/s. The north-south component
of the IMF varied between about +5 and -7 nT with sustained southward
periods, 0930-1300 and 2130-2315 UT. A possible weak shock was
observed in the solar wind at 1417UT on 03 Jun. STEREO A and B
imagery show CME events at around 2354 UT, 2 June, and 0509 UT,
today. Neither appear to be Earth directed. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain somewhat disturbed for day one of the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with active levels 09-12 UT.
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 22243222
Darwin 8 22233122
Townsville 10 22243222
Learmonth 10 12243222
Canberra 6 11133111
Hobart 9 11143222
Casey(Ant) 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2300 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Jun 6 Quiet
06 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Sudden impulse around 1120 UT resulted in active levels
for 09-12 UT. Still chance of isolated active levels at high
latitudes for day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-01 UT. No data
thereafter.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly depressed 15-30%. Night spread F observed 13-17
UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-01, 04-06, 18-22 UT
with depressions to 30% at other times. Spread F
observed 13-21 UT. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Occasional depressions to 30%. Night spread F
observed. No data for Christchurch.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
05 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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