[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 2 09:29:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed declined to end the period at around 
520 km/s while the north-south component of the IMF varied between 
about +6 and -7 nT. STEREO A and B imagery detected a CME event 
around 2054 UT on 31 May which appears Earth directed. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed for days one 
and two of the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to active 

Estimated Indices 01 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   42222332
      Darwin              10   32222332
      Townsville          16   43333333
      Learmonth           13   42222342
      Canberra             8   32222321
      Hobart               8   32222321
      Casey(Ant)          14   43323--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3343 3323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
03 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
04 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 

COMMENT: The effects of the CME on 31 May are expected to impact 
the geomagnetic field on day two of the forecast period, possibly 
around 0900 UT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Jun     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      12-16 UT and enhancements to 30% 09-10 UT. Spread F
      16-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed with some night spread F.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed. Night spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly 30-40% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
03 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
04 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   241000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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