[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 1 09:36:46 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between about 500 and 630
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied between about +5 and
-7 nT. Solar parameters are expected to remain disturbed for
the next few days due to the passage of the coronal hole wind
stream. New region 1076 (S19E07) was numbered today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 11 23333222
Darwin 10 23332222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 6 12222222
Hobart 10 22333222
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19 3342 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
02 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
03 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
03-10 UT and depressions to 30% 12-16 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Enhancments to 30% 05-09 UT at Darwin. Spread F
observed 13-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15-35% depressed. F region trace not observed
on ionograms at times during the period 10-20 UT at
Canberra, Hobart and Sydney due to depressed state of
the F region. Spread F observed at Brisbane 10-18
UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly depressed 15-40%.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
02 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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