[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 23 09:41:45 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: Region 1089 produced several mid and high B-class flares 
and 1087 produced a B-flare before rotating off the disc. AR1089 
is currently medium sized and magnetically simple (beta) and 
decreased slightly in size and complexity in the last 24 hours, 
so C-flaring is possible but not very likely. The solar wind 
speed Vsw raised slightly to 370 km/sec and appears to have stabilised
as the long thin coronal hole remains geoeffective and should 
be so for 3-4 days. The north-south Bz component of the IMF was 
south for ~12 hours early in the day but only -2nT and not strongly 
conducive to merging. Bz is currently oscillated north and south. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Darwin               4   11221112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   11121111
      Canberra             1   01020000
      Hobart               1   10021000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2201 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly only Quiet at mid and 
equatorial latitudes even though the solar wind speed was at 
370 km/sec from the long thin coronal hole. The coupling between 
solar wind and geomagnetic field appears to be weak as it is 
near solstice when the geometry is not favourable. Vsw appears 
to have stabilised and as the coronal hole is long and thin, 
it should stay at this level 3-4 days. The north-south Bz component 
of the IMF was south for ~12 hours early in the day but only 
-2nT and not strongly conducive to merging so polar geomagnetic 
activity was only slightly Unsettled. Bz is currently oscillating 
north and south but so far this is not increasing polar geomagnetic 
activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    28    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul    27    near predicted monthly values 
25 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Ionisation and MUFs have remained near monthly median 
levels due to AR1089 EUV and x-ray flux. MUFs should remain near 
monthly medians for at least a couple of days, then slightly 
decreasing when the geomagnetic activity subsides after the corinal 
hole passage. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    42900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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