[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 18 10:12:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              83/24              80/20

COMMENT: AR1040 produced two B-class x-ray flares and one C-class 
flare over the last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from 
this region with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the 
next three days due to its simple magnetic configuration. The 
solar wind declined from 370 to 330 km/s and is expected to remain 
around this level till late in the UT day 18 January when a coronal 
hole is expected to reach its geo-effective position. The solar 
wind speed then is expected to increase to around the 450 km/s 
range for the UT day of 19 January. The Interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component ranged between +/-3nT. Noted CME on east limb 
of the solar disc, first observed from the SOHO C3 imagery at 
06 15UT 17 January. Still in progress at time of report, however 
is not expected to be geoeffective. The GOES backgound x-ray 
flux is elevated and is expected to remain so until the active 
regions rotate around the west limb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               2   11101012
      Townsville           2   11101011
      Learmonth            2   21011001
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               2   11201001
      Casey(Ant)           4   ---21112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     6    Quiet 
19 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jan     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region 
and Quiet to Unsettled at polar latitudes over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the geomagnetic field to be generally Quiet at all latitudes 
till later in the UT day 18 January when the solar wind is expected 
to increase causing a minor disturbance in the geomagnetic field. 
The polar and southern Australian regions may become unsettled 
with isolated cases of active conditions, however the mid to 
low latiudes should remain mostly quiet. The unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to last around a day and a half. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Jan     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values, 
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly 
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the 
Australian region with particularly strong cases detected at 
Canberra and Sydney stations through out the UT day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    65800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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