[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 25 09:50:44 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the the last 24 hours.
Three small B-class x-ray flares occurred during this period.
A new active region 1050 appeared on the disc just west of the
central meridian with a stable beta configuration. AR1049 is
declining and about to rotate off the disc. Solar activity is
expected to stay at low to very low levels for the next three
days. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels of 330 to 390 km/s.
The absence of impending coronal holes in SOHO or STEREO spacecraft
imagery indicate solar wind speed is expected to remain in this
range for the next three days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field turned to sustained southwards at 14UT and hence
merging with the geomagnetic field will be underway near the
end of the UT day 24th Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 22101110
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 3 12111111
Casey(Ant) 5 3--11111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2100 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 4 Quiet
27 Feb 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels
at mid-latitudes with isolated periods of Active to Minor Storm
levels in the Antarctic region. The absence of impending coronal
holes in SOHO or STEREO spacecraft imagery indicate solar wind
speed is expected to remain in the nominal 300-400km/s range
for the next three days with no appreciable geomagnetic activity
caused. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned to sustained southwards at 14UT and hence merging with
the geomagnetic field will be underway near the end of the UT
day 24th Feb. If this continues for a few hours into the 25th
then polar latitudes will be at least Active and mid-latitudes
Unsettled.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 48 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
26 Feb 40 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb 45 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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