[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 24 09:38:09 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the the last 24 hours. 
Small B-class x-ray flares occurred during this period. Solar 
activity is expected to stay at low to very low levels for the 
next three days. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels of 330 
to 380 km/s. The absence of impending coronal holes in SOHO or 
STEREO spacecraft imagery indicate solar wind speed is expected 
to remain in this range for the next three days. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was +/-5nT over the last 
24 hours with no significant southward periods. SOHO LASCO imagery 
shows a weak CME at 11UT 22nd Feb but it is from the limb and 
not expected to be geo-effective. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               3   21110012
      Townsville           4   21111122
      Learmonth            3   22110110
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               3   21111111
      Casey(Ant)           5   3--21110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     4    Quiet 
25 Feb     4    Quiet 
26 Feb     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels 
with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active levels in the Antarctic 
region. Expect similar conditions for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
25 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
26 Feb    40    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were 
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong 
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    38300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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