[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 7 10:51:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 1900UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2137UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 92/37 94/40
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Moderate over the UT day. A rapidly
emerging new region in the north-east quadrant (AR1045 at N24E14)
developed overnight into a DKC-class spot group with a complex
magnetic beta-gamma configuration and produced several C-class
and two M-class flares: an M2.9 at 1859UT and an M1.3 at 2137UT.
The region remains large, complex and continues to flare with
the potential to produce further M-class events over the next
24 hours. The solar wind remains below 400km/s however IMF Bz
turned southward for an extended period between 12UT and 20UT
and the total magnetic field increased signficantly indicative
of coronal hole onset. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
today (07 Feb) and remain elevated next 3-5 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Mostly Quiet with an
isolated Active period 16-18UT
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11122311
Darwin 5 11112312
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 5 10022321
Canberra 3 00012300
Hobart 7 12112411
Casey(Ant) 12 33332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 10 Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods
08 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with an isolated Active period ~16-18UT likely associated with
a period of sustained southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF). Expect mostly Unsettled conditions 07 Feb with a chance
of isolated Active periods due to onset of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream. Minor Storming possible at high latitudes
07-08 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 6 February
and is current for interval 7 February only (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values. An M1 solar flare
at 2138UT produced a weak short wave fade centred over the Pacific
affecting HF circuits over that region. The solar active region
which produced the M-class flare continues to flare and may cause
further fades in the sunlit hemisphere throughout the day. Otherwise
expect mostly normal HF conditions 07 Feb with MUFs near predicted
monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list