[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 3 10:32:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low over the UT day with no
significant solar flares. Similar conditions are expected 03
Feb. Active region 1043 (N25W05) remains stable. The solar wind
speed remains elevated at 500 to 550km/s under the influence
of a weak coronal hole wind stream. The moderate fluctuations
(+/-5nT) in IMF Bz continued over the UT day likely contributing
to enhanced merging with the geomagnetic field. Expect continuing
elevated solar wind speeds next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 32122223
Darwin 7 32121123
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 6 31122212
Canberra 4 21112112
Hobart 8 32222213
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1111 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 3 Quiet
05 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day with some isolated Active to Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes. The increased activity was in response to elevated
solar wind speeds and persistent variability in the IMF Bz. Expect
mostly quiet conditions at mid and low latitudes 03 Feb with
some isolated Unsettled periods. Isolated Active conditions possible
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day. MUFs mostly near predicted monthly
values with just some minor depressions overnight in N.Aus. Intervals
of strong sporadic E were again observed at various sites (Darwin,
Brisbane, Norfolk, equatorial sites) throughout the day. Expect
similar conditions 03 Feb. Sporadic E may again affect F region
communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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