[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 2 10:40:40 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Very Low over the UT day, expected
to continue 02 Feb. There is a small chance of a C-class flare
from active region 1043 (N25E05). The solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated at 450km/s likely due to a weak coronal hole.
There were some moderate fluctuations (+/-5nT) in the interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component over the day which will likely have
contributed to enhanced merging with the geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 21233223
Darwin 8 11223223
Townsville 9 11233223
Learmonth 10 22233223
Canberra 5 00223112
Hobart 9 21233312
Casey(Ant) 16 33433224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 3 Quiet
04 Feb 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day in response to elevated solar wind speeds. Expect
mostly quiet conditions 02 Feb with isolated Unsettled periods.
Isolated Active conditions possible at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day. MUFs near predicted monthly values.
Some strong sporadic E observed during the day, particularly
at mid-latitude sites. Expect similar conditions 02 Feb. Isolated
depressions in MUFs to 25% likely at times. Sporadic E may affect
F region communications at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list