[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 30 10:29:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind
speed ranged from 340 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component stayed
between +/- 4 nT for most parts of the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 22112211
Canberra 3 11112110
Hobart 3 11112110
Casey(Ant) 9 3-331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 0001 5431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 3 Quiet
31 Dec 3 Quiet
01 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed during the last
24 hours on low and high latitude locations. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days as the
solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels,
and hence low ionising radiation is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Dec 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jan 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today with
isolated periods of minor MUF depressions on low and high latitudes.
Due to continued Very Low levels of solar activity less ionising
radiation is being received. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days. Periods of partial to complete
blanketing by Sporadic E-layer were observed at some low and
mid latitude locations today. Similar effect of Sporadic E-layer
may continue to be observed over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 11.7 p/cc Temp: 34800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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