[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 29 10:25:43 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A CME, that was 
observed on 23 December, seems to have impacted the earth. Solar 
wind speed increased from 330 to 380 km/s over the last 24 hours. 
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turned negative 
around 0900UT, went negative upto around -13 nT and stayed negative 
till around 1500UT. Bz stayed close to the normal value or slightly 
positive during most parts of the remaining day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain very low for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   22325431
      Darwin              14   22225332
      Townsville          16   22325431
      Learmonth           15   22225432
      Canberra            14   12225431
      Hobart              12   12324430
      Casey(Ant)          16   34334322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     5    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
30 Dec     3    Quiet 
31 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Earth seems to have been impacted by the CME observed 
on 23 December. Bz went negative upto around -13 nT between 0900 
and 1500 UT. This resulted in minor storm periods. Mostly quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the possibility 
of isolated unsettled periods on 29 December. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed during the 
last 24 hours on low and high latitude locations. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days 
as the solar activity is expected to continue at very low 
levels, and hence low ionising radiation is expected during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Dec    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today 
with isolated periods of minor MUF depressions on low and 
high latitudes. Due to continued Very Low levels of solar 
activity less ionising radiation is being received. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    69300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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