[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 20 10:31:03 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. Solar wind parameters 
were undisturbed; speed ranging between 360 and 430 km/s and 
the north-south IMF between +5 to -4 nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be undisturbed over the forecast period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           3   11110112
      Learmonth            4   22111112
      Canberra             2   12100002
      Hobart               2   12100002
      Casey(Ant)           8   34321113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
21 Dec     5    Quiet 
22 Dec     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Dec    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      00-03, 23 UT and to 35% 22 UT. No data 16-21 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      17-18 and 23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      17-23 UT at Darwin and to 25% 01-02, 13 and 22-23 UT
      at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% mostly
      00-05, 09-13 and 18-23 UT at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      14-16 UT Macquarie Is. and to 20% 07-10 UT at Mawson.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
21 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
22 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    62800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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