[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were undisturbed; speed ranging 
between 440 and 380 km/s and the north-south IMF between +/-4 
nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be undisturbed over 
the forecast period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212111
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville           4   12111221
      Learmonth            4   21112111
      Canberra             3   12201011
      Hobart               3   12202011
      Casey(Ant)           8   34422222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2100 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     5    Quiet 
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
21 Dec     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
20 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
21 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      01-03, 17-18 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25% at
      2100 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      00, 07-11 and 21-22 UT at Darwin and 09-15 and 19-21 UT
      at Townsville. Depressions of 55% 19-20 UT at Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      mostly 01-05 and 10-17 UT at Brisbane, Canberra,
      Norfolk Is. and Sydney.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
20 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
21 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications at times. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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