[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 17 10:30:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Region 1135 (N19E17) produced a long duration sub-flare
event at 0427 UT and may have been the source of another sub-flare
event around 2230 UT. This region continues to have the potential
to produce a C-class event. ACE north-south IMF ranged between
+/-4 nT with wind speed declining from about 580 to 450 km/s.
Solar wind speed is likely to increase on day two due to the
effects of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22221211
Darwin 5 22211212
Townsville 6 22221221
Learmonth 5 22221210
Canberra 4 22220210
Hobart 5 22220211
Casey(Ant) 13 4-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3411 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 7 Quiet to unsettled
19 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 14 December
and is current for interval 15-17 December. Isolated active
periods at high latitudes later on day two, persisting on day
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
01-06 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
03-04, 23 UT at Townsville and 21-23 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%,
00-06 UT at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Perth.
Depressions to 30% 15-20 UT at Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 25 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 15
December and is current for interval 15-17 December. Expect
occasional depressions to about 20%. Seasonal sporadic E may
degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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