[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 16 10:29:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 86/29 84/26
COMMENT: Region 1135 (N18E30) produced a C5.3 flare at 0639 UT.
LASCO and STEREO A images show weak CMEs around 0742, 1424 and
1609 UT. ACE data show the solar wind speed declined from about
620 to 550 km/s, while the north-south IMF component ranged between
+4 to -5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain somewhat
disturbed over the forecast period due to a favourably positioned
coronal hole and CME activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to unsettled.
Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 9 32322321
Learmonth 8 32223212
Canberra 6 22212212
Hobart 8 23322211
Casey(Ant) 11 55543322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1223 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 14 December
and is current for interval 15-17 December. Isolated active periods
possible days one and two; minor storm levels still likely at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
16-17, 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
05-07, 23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 10-25% depressed, except at Norfolk Is. and
Perth where MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values with depressions to 20% 03-06, 15 UT at Norfolk
Is. and 17-21 UT at Perth. Sporadic E blanketed most
of the time 14-20 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 25% observed mostly 00-03, 08-14 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
18 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 15-17 December. Seasonal sporadic
E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 279000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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