[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 3 10:43:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed fell from 340km/s to be 300km/s at the time
of this report. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-2nT. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low to Low for the next two days while region 1130 remains
on disc and has the potential for further C-class events. Very
Low solar activity is expected for 05Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 4 22211120
Learmonth 2 11110011
Canberra 0 010000--
Hobart 1 11100010
Casey(Ant) 8 33321012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
due to possible combined effects of a CME from a disappearing
filament on 29Nov and a CME noted off the east limb on 30Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of ~20% observed during local night
for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours. Notable sporadic E for Northern AUS regions
and some Southern AUS IPS stations between 09-13UT. Mostly normal
HF conditions for Antarctic regions with occasional depressed
periods. Similar ionospheric support is expected for the next
3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for the low to mid latitudes.
Possible increase in geomagnetic activity over the next 24-48
hours could result in disturbed conditions for mid to high latitudes
for 04Dec-05Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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