[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 2 10:46:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours. Region
1130 was the source of numerous B-class events and a C1.0 flare
at 0622UT. Solar wind speed ranged between 340km/s-360km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low to Low for the next three days with possible C-class events
from region 1130.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111121
Darwin 3 11100122
Townsville 4 12111221
Learmonth 4 11111221
Canberra 0 00000110
Hobart 2 11100111
Casey(Ant) 7 23221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0101 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 4 Quiet
03 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with
possible Unsettled conditions on 02Dec-03Dec due to potential
CME effects from a disappearing filament on 29Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 1 December
and is current for interval 1-2 December. MUF depressions of
sporadic E for Northern AUS regions between 09-13UT. Similar
ionospheric support is expected for the next 3 days, with MUF
depressions of 10%-20% for the entire Australian/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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