[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 31 09:29:14 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 440 to 360 km/s over
the day and has become a little turbulent since 18UT. The north-south
IMF Bz component was mostly north and not below -2 nT, not conducive
for geomagnetic merging. Solar wind parameters should become
slightly disturbed late in the UT day 31Aug due to the effects
of a recurrent coronal hole. Region 1101 is growing but is a
stable ALPHA magnetic configuration, only issuing a small B-class
X-ray flare and several Type III radio bursts. New Region 1102
is small and fairly stable with BETA configuration.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 11010000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000001
Casey(Ant) 3 22210001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole enhanced solar wind speed should
cause some Unsettled conditions at low and mid latitudes late
in the UT day or tomorrow. Isolated active periods are possible
at high latitudes, particularly if IMF Bz has extended south
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
01 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
02 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
Equatorial latitudes generally reduced significantly. MUFs should
be only slightly depressed from monthly averages at mid-latitudes
for 31Aug but then them more so 1Sep due to geomagnetic activity
from a recurrent coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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