[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              75/13              76/14

COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged between 420-550 km/s. The north-south
IMF component ranged between +/-2 nT. Solar parameters are expected 
to continue their return to undisturbed levels day one before 
becoming slightly disturbed day two due to the effects of coronal 
hole. Region 1101 (N12E07) has grown in area but remains stable. 
Region 1102 (N27W13) was numbered today. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   11211001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           4   23210011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3231 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     5    Quiet 
31 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
01 Sep     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods at high latitudes, day two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Aug    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      06-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed at Darwin. Near predicted
      monthly values to 20% depressed at Townsville. Night
      spread F observed at both stations.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed with
      night spread F.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
31 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
01 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 613 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   142000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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