[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 19 09:37:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1099 (behind the limb now) produced a long duration
C4.5 X-ray flare that started at 0445, peaked at 0548 and
ended at 0651UT. This flare was also associated with a CME
which is not eartward directed. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 380 to 350 km/s during the UT day today and
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly
stayed between +/-3 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22212001
Darwin 4 22212001
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 3 22112000
Canberra 1 11002000
Hobart 3 21112001
Casey(Ant) 7 33322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1111 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 6 Quiet
20 Aug 5 Quiet
21 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar levels of activity may be expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations on 18 August. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 34 near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 34 near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 34 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today. Simialr HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation to the ionospheric conditions is expected during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 41200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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