[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 18 09:45:35 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    81/22              81/22              80/20
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1099 produced several B-class 
x-ray flares during the UT day today, the largest being a 
B7.6 that peaked at 1603UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 
370 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-4 nT over 
the last 24 hours. The previously anticipated effect of CME 
did not eventuate. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
very low levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12112221
      Darwin               4   11111212
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            3   11011221
      Canberra             1   11001110
      Hobart               4   11112211
      Casey(Ant)           8   23312221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2312 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Aug     6    Quiet 
20 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may rise to usettled levels 
on 18 August due to the possible effect of a CME that was 
observed on 15 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
return to mostly quiet levels thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most 
locations on 17 August. Minor to moderated degradations in 
HF conditions may be possible, especially on mid and high 
latitude locations, on 18 August due to an expected rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF condtions are 
expected to remain mostly at normal levels on 19 and 20 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    27    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
19 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    32    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 
most locations during the UT day today. Minor to moderate 
degradations in HF conditions may be possible on 18 August 
mainly on mid and high latitude locations due an anticipated 
rise in geomagnetic conditions on this day. HF conditions 
are expectected to remain mostly normal on the following 
two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    49800 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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