[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 4 09:54:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: A minor shock in the interplanetary magnetic field was
observed at the ACE satellite platform at 1656UT. Solar wind
speed increased rapidly from 400 to 600 km/s and the IMF BZ component
sustained -8 to -10nT for some hours after the shock arrival.
This event is likely to be from the long-duration C-class flare
observed on Aug 01. A second shock resulting from a filament
eruption around the same time is anticipated on day one of the
forecast period. Solar activity was very low over the UT day
Aug 03. There is a possibility of C-class flares from AR 1092.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1655UT on
03 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 22222345
Darwin 15 21121445
Townsville 13 22222344
Learmonth 18 21122455
Canberra 11 12122244
Hobart 14 11122345
Casey(Ant) 14 3332324-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 25 Active. Chance minor storm periods.
05 Aug 35 Active to minor storm
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the first half
of the UT day. Arrival of a solar wind shock from the CME of
Aug 01 resulted in Active to Minor Storm conditions after 1740UT.
Major storm levels were observed at high latitude stations late
in the UT day. Expect continuing Active to Minor Storm conditions
days one and two. There is a possibility of further shock arrivals
days one and two resultant from the complex series of solar eruptions
on Aug 01. Conditions should decline on day three as the shock
front passes.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1741UT on 03 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible mid to high latitudes next
three days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Variable enhancements during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed with enhancements
and depressions Equatorial/ N Aus regions and periods of disturbance
Antarctic region. Expect similar conditions next three days.
Extended periods of disturbance possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
due to elevated geomagnetic activty resulting from recent solar
events.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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