[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 2 09:53:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Active region 1092, located in the NE solar quadrant,
produced a long-duration C3 level flare commencing at around
08UT. This triggered a complex series of events across the solar
N hemisphere resulting in a long-duration full-halo CME. Satellite
based imagery did not capture the entire event, but the flare
location and halo suggests this event will be geoeffective in
2-4 days. Proton fluxes increased steadily after 15UT and are
trending upwards at the time of report issue. Solar wind speed
continiued to decline over the UT day as the coronal hole wind
stream subsides.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12111211
Darwin 3 12110111
Townsville 7 32221222
Learmonth 3 11111211
Canberra 2 02110101
Hobart 2 01111101
Casey(Ant) 8 33221212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 20 active
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes with isolated unsettled periods early in the UT day
at high latitudes. Expect quiet conditions day one. A full-halo
CME observed in satellite imagery of the sun on Aug 01 is likely
to impact the Earth Aug 03-04, bringing unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditons for 1-2 days. Minor to major storm
conditions possible at high latitudes days 2-3 of the forecast
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible mid to high latitudes days
2 and 3 in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed with moderate
depressions Equatorial/ N Aus regions and periods of disturbance
Antarctic region. Expect mostly normal conditions day one with
the chance of widespread depressions at S Aus to Antarctic latitides
due to elevated proton flux. Extended periods of disturbance
possible days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activty
resulting from recent solar events.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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