[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 1 09:41:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Regions 1089 and 1092 produced several B-class flares
and Type III radio sweeps over the UT day. A Type III burst group
was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph from 0517 to 0530UT.
Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day to around 540
km/s at the time of report issue. The IMF Bz component was mostly
neutral but sustained -2nT for some hours during the mid part
of the UT day. The present coronal hole wind stream should continue
to decline over the next 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 21113311
Darwin 6 2--13211
Townsville 8 2222331-
Learmonth 5 21113300
Canberra 3 11012201
Hobart 4 21012301
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 76 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2112 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 6 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
02 Aug 5 Quiet
03 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Following a sustained period of negative solar wind
Bz during the mid-part of the UT day, an unsettled interval was
observed 15-18UT mainly at mid-latitudes. Isolated unsettled
intervals observed at other times at high latitudes. Otherwise
the geomagnetic field was quiet. Expect mostly quiet conditions
next three days. Chance of isolated unsettled periods due to
elevated but declining solar wind parameters.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day
with mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions after
local dawn. Generally weak ionospheric conditions at times for
Antarctic regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support expected
for the next 3 days with possible disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 583 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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