[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 30 09:08:55 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was noted over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between 340 and 300 km/s. Expect
the solar wind to increase late in the UT day today, 30 September,
due to coronal hole, however this coronal hole extends from the
north pole to about 25 degrees latitude which is just within
the geo-effective range. Active region 1027 is slowly decaying
and not expected to produce any significant flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 1 11011100
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2241 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
02 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
The Earth is expected to enter a high speed solar wind stream
late on 30 September which is likely to increase activity levels
ranging from quiet to active conditions on late 30 September
and 01 October and then return to quiet conditions on 02 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions
over the next 24 hours with a possibilty of slight depressions
in the equitorial and north Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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