[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 29 09:54:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was noted over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed stepped up from 320 km/s to 350 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component had an extended
period of southerly Bz remaining around -5 to -6 nT from 0500
to 0800 UT. Based on San Vito and Holloman Solar observatory
spots reports active region 1027 may have grown slightly to 60
mils, however still shows simple magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with a slight
chance of a C-class flares. A coronal hole the northern hemisphere
is presently just west of the central meridian and is expected
to be geoeffective late in the UT day on 30 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22421012
Darwin 7 21421012
Townsville 9 22422122
Learmonth 8 22421022
Canberra 4 11321011
Hobart 8 12422112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2323 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with a minor storm period occurring between 0600
and 0900 UT in the Antarctic and Australian regions due to a
southerly Bz component of the IMF. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected over the next two days. The Earth is expected to
enter a high speed solar wind stream late on 30 September which
is likely to increase activity levels to unsettled to active
on 01 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions
over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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