[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 30 10:11:24 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 
hours. The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected one B-class 
flare from active region (AR) 1029 through out the UT day, 29 
October. The GONG magnetogram shows the region has simplified 
to a more stable magnetic configuration. Expect no more than 
B-class flares as this region rotates around the western limb 
during the next two days. Solar wind speed varied between 335 
and 385 km/s and is presently 360 km/s. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly northward during 
the last 24 hrs ranging between +10/-5 nT. The solar wind is 
expected to remain below 400 km/s for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Darwin               6   21222222
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            7   12223221
      Canberra             4   11212112
      Hobart               5   12212212
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Darwin              43   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1012 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct     4    Quiet 
31 Oct     4    Quiet 
01 Nov     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Oct    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct     1    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted spread F at Hobart during the local night. Expect 
near predicted monthly HF conditions for the Australian and Antarctic 
regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    40900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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