[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 29 10:26:36 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 75/13
COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 hours.
The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected a C2.2 class flare
and several B-class flares from active region (AR) 1029 through
out the UT day 28 October. Learmonth Solar Observatory also observed
H-alpha subflare associated with the C-class flare 28/0052. The
GONG magnetograms show the region is decaying in field strength
and appears to be forming a more stable configuration. Expect
B-class flares and a possible C-class flare today 29 October
and a return to Very Low solar activity on the following two
days. Solar wind speed decrease from 405 to 350 km/s and is presently
350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) had a prolong southerly period peaking at -4nT between
0230 and 1900 UT inducing weak reconnection with the Earth's magnetic
field. The solar wind is expected to remain below 400 km/s for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 3 11121012
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 3 21120101
Canberra 2 01120001
Hobart 5 11231111
Casey(Ant) 5 3--21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 4 Quiet
30 Oct 4 Quiet
31 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Quiet to Active conditions
for high latitudes due to weak reconnection between the IMF and
the Earth's magnetic field. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
at all latitudes for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 1 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted spread F at Hobart during the local night. Expect
near predicted monthly HF conditions for the Australian and Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 41100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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