[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 30 10:17:44 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed decreased from 360 to 300 km/s 
and the Bz component of IMF stayed mostly between +/-3 nT 
during the UT day today. Solar acivity is expected to stay 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   01100112
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            1   11001101
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   01100101
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     3    Quiet 
01 Dec     3    Quiet 
02 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
today. Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions observed on low latitude 
during the first few hours of the UT day today (29 November), 
otherwise HF conditions were mostly normal during the day 
with strong sporadic E layers observed at low and mid 
latitudes. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric 
variations are expected during this period. However, periods 
of minor to mild MUF depressions may be possible for the 
next three days at low and some mid latitude locations due 
to a weak ionosphere as the solar activity is continuing
to stay at very low levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Nov   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values 
01 Dec   -15    near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   -15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across 
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    59300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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