[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 29 10:14:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 360 km/s and
the Bz component of IMF stayed close (between +/-2 nT) to the
normal value for most parts of the UT day today. Solar acivity
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12221211
Darwin 4 12211211
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 11221210
Canberra 3 01210211
Hobart 3 02210200
Casey(Ant) 6 1-321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0111 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 3 Quiet
30 Nov 3 Quiet
01 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today, although
strong sporadic E layers were observed at low and mid latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels
for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric variations
are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov -7 near predicted monthly values
30 Nov -7 near predicted monthly values
01 Dec -7 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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