[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: ACE spacecraft showed the solar wind speed ranging from 
300 to 350 km/s on 10 March with the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component fluctuating between +3/-4nT. Based on recurrence 
and the STEREO spacecraft the solar wind is expected to increase 
to approximately 600 km/s on 13 March. The solar disk is presently 
spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101211
      Darwin               3   11101212
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            3   11012210
      Camden               2   11001211
      Canberra             2   11001211
      Hobart               2   11001211
      Casey(Ant)           5   12212221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     4    Quiet 
12 Mar     4    Quiet 
13 Mar    18    active 

COMMENT: Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next two 
days. Expect unsettled to active geomagnetic levels on 13 March 
with isolated chances of minor storm levels at high latitudes 
due to a recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Mar   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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