[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 9 10:22:05 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters mildly elevated for some hours 
during the mid part of the UT day. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0649UT 
on 08 Mar. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22333311
      Darwin               9   12332312
      Townsville          11   22333322
      Learmonth           10   22333320
      Camden               7   11333210
      Canberra             7   11333200
      Hobart              11   12343311
      Casey(Ant)          13   33433311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar     5    Quiet 
10 Mar     4    Quiet 
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually increased from 300 to 400 
km/s over the UT day. Some periods of moderately southward Bz 
observed. Regional geomagnetic conditions were quiet with unsettled 
periods during the mid part of the UT day. Isolated active intervals 
at high latitudes. Expect mostly quiet conditions next two days. 
A mild coronal hole wind stream may produce unsettled periods 
day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
10 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Mar   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial 
and N Aus regions. Expect similar conditions next three days 
with the chance of some disturbance Antarctic region day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    37400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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