[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 3 10:27:41 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain very low for the next three days. A small
equatorial coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position 03-04 Mar briefly raising solar wind speed and increasing
IMF variability.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12111011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 22101011
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 1 11001001
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 5 Quiet
04 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the UT
day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions today (03 Mar). Later today
or early tomorrow conditions may become briefly Unsettled with
isolated Active periods due to onset of a coronal hole wind stream.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet by day three (04 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values
04 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
with the notable exception of the equatorial region which again
saw some large fluctuations in MUFs. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed (10 to 20%)
next three days due to continuing low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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