[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 1 10:23:28 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain that way for the next three days. The solar
wind speed dropped back below 500km/s and the IMF was relatively
stable (+/-3nT). Expect similar solar wind conditions next two
days. Day 3 should see the onset of a high speed coronal hole
wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Mostly Quiet. Active
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 23211111
Darwin 3 22210011
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 23210111
Camden 4 22211011
Canberra 15 -------3
Hobart 4 22210111
Casey(Ant) 11 34421111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1123 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 2 Quiet
02 Mar 2 Quiet
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the UT
day, with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next two days (01-02 Mar) and Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods on day three (03 Mar)
due to onset of a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable depressions by up to 40% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Mar -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours. Some degraded HF conditions were observed
at higher latitude sites (Hobart, south). MUFs were near predicted
monthly values in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions and depressed
to 20% in N.Aus. Variable depressions of up to 40% were observed
in the equatorial region. MUFs are expected to be mildly depressed
(10 to 20%) next three days due to continuing low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 616 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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