[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 28 09:52:40 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains at ~400km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days as the visible solar disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 4 11111221
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 21112321
Camden 3 11111211
Canberra 1 00001101
Hobart 3 11111211
Casey(Ant) 5 11211312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 12 Unsettled
29 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity declined from 400km/s at 0000UT to 365km/s
at 11UT after which it increased to a maximum of 425km/s at 15UT.
An increase in the solar wind speed is expected in the next 24
hours with the arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a
geoeffective coronal hole resulting in Unsettled conditions with
isolated Active periods for 28Jun. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 29Jun and Quiet conditions for 30Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day with notable sporadic E. Mostly normal
conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUFs during
local night. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. MUF
depressions of 10%-20% are expected for low latitudes during
local day for the next 3 days. Mostly normal conditions for mid
latitudes with possible nightime enhancements over the next 24
hours. Continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions for
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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